Chart of the week: Outbound Tender Volume Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – US Sonar: OTVI.USA, OTRI.USA
The National Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) – which measures demand for truckloads – last week hit an October low of 9,311. This puts the index at approx 19% less than last year and 15 percent less than 2023 For the same period, typically, a fall of this magnitude would cause a corresponding drop in bid rejections and spot rates. However, almost the opposite has happened: reject rates (OTRI) are above both 2023 and 2024 levels, while spot rates have moved erratically over the past two weeks, but mostly trended higher. This suggests that capacity is coming out of the market faster than demand is falling – but let’s dive deeper.
Understanding capacity
A common question people ask is “How many trucks are on the road?” While intuitive, this is an incomplete question. A million trucks may be available for 500 loads, and if those trucks are not in the right places, we may still have a capacity problem. This type of imbalance occurs often, even in well-supplied markets, although the effects are usually short-lived.
The emergence of freight brokers and freight boards has improved carrier visibility and connectivity with existing transportation. These tools speed up market response times, which can cause rates to fluctuate in the short term, but help prevent long-term capacity shortages.
Almost every carrier network operates out of balance. Carriers are constantly shifting equipment from markets with excess inbound load to markets with higher outbound demand. Southern California is a prime example of this imbalance.
In Los Angeles, the Outbound Bid Volume Index (OTVI) consistently exceeds the Inbound Bid Volume Index (ITVI). Without carriers intentionally sitting idle—or “dead”—this market will quickly run out of available trucks.
Carriers charge higher rates for shipments from low-supply markets such as Los Angeles (a.k.a headhauls) and lower rates for goods leaving oversupplied markets (aka The setbacks).
One of the most popular backhaul markets is Lakeland, Florida, where tender data shows nearly twice as many outbound shipments as inbound. This imbalance is why rates from Central Florida are typically among the lowest in the country.
The collapse of long-haul transport
Over the past 18 months, long-term demand – defined as loads traveling more than 800 miles – dropped 30% year on year. Most of this decrease is due to the shift of transportation towards rail and intermodal services. With many shippers moving inventory forward and extending domestic delivery schedules, the urgency of trucking has diminished.
Intermodal now offers almost unprecedented savings compared to trucking, making it an easy choice for shippers to take advantage of. But this shift has disrupted connectivity between regions, making freight transport more regional and harder to maintain as a national network. As a result, the market has become more vulnerable to increased demand on long-haul lines.
The trend shows in the data: Long-term tender rejection rates (LOTRI) hit 12.5% this month, the highest since May 2024. At the time, a flurry of unexpected West Coast imports—spurred by concerns about the stability of maritime services—prompted a temporary spike in rejections. The most recent increase in volume was not accompanied.
Political and regulatory pressures
Recent crackdowns on immigrant and non-resident drivers may also contribute to the aggravation of the situation. California, a frequent target of the Trump administration’s enforcement efforts, has been scrutinized more than any other state, indicating a regional political bias in regulatory actions.
While it could be argued that the recent redoubled efforts by ICE in the transportation sector may have been a factor recently, it can hardly be said that this has been the case all year. Rejection rates rose without a similar increase in demand in July and August before easing in September. It supports carrier network challenges more than regulatory activity.
Spot rates from Los Angeles to Chicago — a route that competes heavily with intermodal — have been increasingly erratic throughout 2025, trending higher since May. Anyone working in this line on the transaction side has probably experienced the growing inconsistency in available capacity.
FMCSA data analyzed by Carrier Details shows capacity exiting the market continues at a rapid pace. The data reflects a multi-year transportation slump more than ICE raids and regulatory pressure. The added pressure from the government will help to exacerbate the effects of a prolonged transportation slump and reduce its vulnerability to worsening demand-side economics.
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