The National Index of the Broadcast Tender (OTVI), which measures the truck load demand, increased by 6.5 % in the week and half the weekend of work. While the increase for this period is normal, the scale of this increase is unusual. Let’s break up what this is the market for the truck load and the overall health of the supply chain.
Increasing the volume of tender before the holidays is nothing new, but these are rarely prominent. Post-evaluation patterns show a relatively average increase: 2-3 % in 2022 and 2023 and in 2024 less than 2 %.
The last time we saw a similar collection was in 2019, which increased 6.6 % over 19 days. The current increase is clearer and faster, and even if it adjusts for seasonal norms, it makes it significant.
Digging from a hole
One of the reasons that this increase seems to be that OTVI was climbing the least time for August. On August 12, the index won 9,701 – about 1.5 % lower than the previous record of the previous 9,875, set in 2018.
This may suggest that some transportation with a lean inventory was caught by the guard. For shipping companies, this can be a positive sign: transportation between tariffs and the uncertainty of trade policy is balanced between over and over deficiency. August is usually not an urgent month in transportation, which causes the prediction of what may happen later in the year. If the surprise demand for climbing or transport enters the peak season, the demand for transportation can accelerate.
Long distance return
The largest pulling in the truck load market in 2025 is losing long shipping for a long time. Longer time of lead and forward inventory strategies have made the rail more affordable for many companies, and slower services are often seen as benefits due to increased warehousing costs.
Most of the demand is due to loads of more than 800 miles. Markets like Los Angeles and Houston have gone through the road, but the long volume has gathered in most country in the last week of August.
Seasonally, long distance loading demand usually increases at this time of year, but this year’s growth has been larger and earlier than expected.
Recovery share
It is important to note that this transport from intermodal does not change to trucking.
The volume of the Oraill Container remains stable and grows by 1-2 % compared to last year. This shows that this growth is pure demand, not just state conversion. Economically, this is encouraging – it indicates sustainable consumption. In fact, some companies, including Walmart, have increased their tips for the remainder of the year.
Impact on capacity and rate
The Truckload (OTRI) tender began to climb on August 18, while the point (NTI) did not rise until Wednesday – but when they did, it was a sharp increase. Despite the tender time on average for more than three days, it is natural to reject, while point activity, with lead time of about one day, is lagging behind.
Since the epidemic, OTRI has hardly moved on Labor Day and increased only 50 BPS or less in the 2022 and 2023 years. This year, however, 115 BPS has increased until Thursday. The point rate actually declined on the weekend of labor in 2024 but rose 3 % in 2023. The rates have risen by 1.3 % since last Thursday – with a few days still going on.
The beginning of the end?
This is not a definitive signal that the soft truck market has ended the past three years. But it reinforces the idea that the market is increasingly vulnerable to rugged demand – common dynamics in the fourth fourth.
The carriers are forced to react and prepare them for a sudden economic change. While the economy itself is unclear and far from strong, unpredictability is enough to create fluctuations in transportation. Sustainable improvement requires a fixed economic background – but in the meantime, transportation service providers should expect fluctuations like this part of the outlook.
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