Week chart: TEUS Ocean Size Index – US Sonar: Ioti.usa
Restricting containers for the United States (IoTI) has dropped by 20 % over the past six weeks, indicating that importers may have been fully improved from the initial inventory concerns of the year. After the collapse in May, when the President stopped the tariff of 145 % about Chinese goods, the imports reached the initial peak. Now, it seems that companies are trying to prevent another inventory hanging because there are questions about consumer health. What does this mean for the rest of the year for the rest of the year?
Change in resources
In the upstream, one of the biggest changes is the continuation of China. Import booking from China to the United States has declined by 25 % compared to last year, while Vietnam is one of the few countries to show annual growth since last week.
According to Sonar data, China has offset most of the decline, as the entire export booking is almost flat compared to 2024. The important point is that the World Trade Stream is quickly regulating Trump’s constant negotiations and forcing carriers to balance trade lines. This can ultimately affect the level of service by increasing empty programs and boating.
The impact of delay in domestic markets
Kennedy imports have not yet reached the domestic market, as reservation data indicates containers still two to four weeks since reaching US ports. For example, cargoes from China to Los Angeles currently take about 16 to 17 days based on the release time.
International demand is directly tied to the import of container. Transportation has been more reliable over the past year because the longer lead and preventive order provides more flexibility. With the increase in warehousing costs, many transport use containers as “moving storage” to compensate for inventory maintenance costs.
The volume of loaded container – both domestic and international – is currently in line with last year, while the truck tender volume has decreased by about 15 %. If the volume of imports continue to be eliminated, international demand, especially for international dishes, can be further weakened in the coming months. The truck market has been less affected because transport has more trusted shorter transport in which railroad saves costs or limited tools.
Inventory strategies in the process
Supply chains remain reactive and balance upstream balance with uncertain downstream demand. The result was a hybrid strategy: maintaining a small inventory buffer while preventing the type of glut seen in early 2022.
The logistics managers’ index (LMI) shows that this year’s inventory level is expanding more rapidly than the first seven months of 2024. Some of this growth is defensive order, but some may indicate weaker demand. Import data enhances the idea that companies are generally facing softer demand.
If demand continues to fade, transport markets may see the second half of the calm. But if the inventory subsides too low or the consumer demand is unexpectedly spilled, it can still be a surprise.
The major retailers reported this week’s Q2 revenue report showed this uncertainty. Walmart provided his tips, while Target described his approach as “cautiously planning”.
Nutrition from rescue?
On Friday, Powell’s federal chair showed a possible change of policy and shows that the rate drop is increasingly likely. These statements in the short term strengthen the financial markets, but may not be sufficient to restore the full confidence of the business in capital costs. This declaration alone may be a little more optimistic, but the actions will ultimately be more important.
Currently, order strategies are still more cautious about confidence. Any increase in monetary policy is speculative. Consumers will be a wild card to watch it, as investment and policies change usually takes longer through transportation. As always, the fourth quarter will depend on retail – a part that still has many questions.
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