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Summary of diving:
- According to ShipMatrix forecasts, the number of U.S. packages delivered during the peak season of 2025 will increase 5 percent year-over-year, largely due to an extra shopping day on the calendar.
- An estimated 2.3 billion packages will be delivered during the upcoming holidays, the largest amount delivered since 2022, according to a Sept. 29 news release from the shipping analytics and consulting provider. However, tariff pressures and the end of minimums will be a headwind for delivery activities.
- ShipMatrix expects FedEx and Amazon to see volume increases of 5 to 8 percent over the previous peak season, while UPS and U.S. Postal Service deliveries are expected to remain flat, assuming continued trends among carriers in the first half of 2025.
It is expected that in 2025 we will see a slight increase in the volume of vacations
Number of US peak season package deliveries as of 2020
Diving Insights:
According to ShipMatrix, while volumes are expected to surpass the previous two years, the peak season of 2025 is not expected to reach the height of 2020’s 3 billion packages delivered. Consumer concerns over tariff-induced price increases could dampen the holiday outlook, as non-store holiday sales growth is expected to slow as shoppers look to make purchases.
However, some carriers may fare better than others during the uncertain period. For example, FedEx is cautiously optimistic about peak seasonal growth, Barry Carrier, EVP and chief customer officer, said on an earnings call last month. He added that the company is planning to increase average daily volume during the holidays, driven by larger trade-to-consumer shippers.
“I predict our numbers will increase slightly compared to [the] Bazaar said.
Meanwhile, many holiday surcharges imposed by package carriers like FedEx will increase in price from last year. Pricing pressures from the top carriers—FedEx, UPS and USPS—could encourage businesses to shift volume to alternative providers or source many of their package deliveries, such as Walmart, per ShipMatrix.
“If current levels of peak surcharges continue in the coming years, Amazon and Walmart and companies like OnTrac, Better Truck, Jitsu, DoorDash and Uber Eats will deliver more packages than the Big 3 by 2027,” ShipMatrix said.
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