Week chart: National Barry Truck Index, Foreign Tender Index – US Sonar: NTI.USA, OTRI.USA
National Truck Index (NTI) – Measurement of Dry Van Spots – Raised 2 % last week and rose from $ 2.31 to $ 2.36 per mile. While this increase in itself is not worrying, the lack of seasonal support and the silent response to the truck’s tender – the compliance of the contract carrier – (OTRI) turns it into a more important improvement for the health of the transportation sector.
NTI has increased more than 2 % in a week seven times in 2025. In addition to the anomalies in February, the tender rejection rate has risen or around each of those jumps at point rates. Typically, non -seasonal increase is done at point rates before the tender rejection, but there are cases where the first point market reacts and the contract market is then regulated.
It seems that the disorder last week was caused by reports of the illegal migration suppression targeting the transportation industry. A Serbian immigration lawyer has reportedly advised many foreign -born operators to avoid roads due to increased risks.
According to government data, about 18 % of the driver’s population was born since 2021. Approximately 60 % of these drivers are from the Latin American continent and the remaining 40 % is primarily from Eastern Europe and India. Many foreign drivers, especially those who are temporary, tend to work for smaller fleets or as owners, because they often live in the United States and send home to support their families. The larger fleet generally prefer availability throughout the year and is more risky because of the need for language skills and safety concerns.
For these reasons, larger carriers – which dominate the contract and strongly affect the tender data – are less influenced by recent migration suppression.
On the other hand, the point market is dominated by smaller companies and owners. It is also a place where brokers tend to find the best opportunities to expand or protect the margins by working with low -cost providers. For this reason, the point market was much more sensitive to the recent implementation activity.
Spot market is estimated to be 15-20 % of the total volume of domestic transportation. Without supporting a much larger contracting part of the contract, it is difficult to say whether this is a real inflation point or simply a short -term disruption of the check -in week.
Regardless of how the event is developed, it highlights a deeper issue in the truck load. Both stain rates and rejection have remained relatively stable despite the weakening of transportation demand.
Bidding volume (OTVI) fell 3 % last week, while the rejection rate was constant. The market has been increasingly responding to capacity disruption – such as holidays and this last repression.
In the long run, the tender volume decreases approximately 20 % compared to the year, while the rejection rate is flat. Typically, the rejection rate is next to the demand. Current stability shows that exit capacity is declining with the same speed demand and makes the networks less buffer and flexible. Low transport rates are also discouraged by long -term empty or non -income miles.
Due to the constant constant conditions, the capacity of about three years is being disappeared.
Since October 2023, the market has lost an average of 264 carriers per week, although it is often necessary for these outputs to do so, and these data are slow or lagging. The fragility of the Truckload market is growing, even if the decline in demand continues to hide its major vulnerability.
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