Every trucker knows when it slows down – you don’t need a chart to feel it in your wallet. But if you are a small airline who try not to call your phone and your loads are paying coins, you need to understand what comes down from the pipe.
One word: tariffHuman
Yes, I know some of the high -level economic policies that are supposed to only affect Wall Street or politicians who scream on television. But let’s simplify this – the tariffs will strangle the pipeline before reaching your board. And the newest waves coming to the US and China trade are another transport drought for the backward half of the year 2025.
Let’s walk through it before you reject this as a greater government noise. Since if you send five trucks, or a owner who crushes your way to that second truck, you need to understand how international policy has become your only domestic problem.
What are the tariffs and why do they affect us?
Tariff is essentially a tax on the goods that enter the country. Let’s say Caterpillar imports parts from China to make shovels in Georgia. If there is a 50 % tariff in those steel parts, their costs will rise –MuchWhat do human beings do? Delay the order. Maybe you cancel it. Maybe the source is elsewhere. But that’s what they don’t do: carry it.
And when is it not shipped? This is less for you once.
You can see, the shipping shipment at the bottom of the hand is everything. When tariffs are imported, they do not just benefit some factories – they start shrinking ocean containers that hit the West Coast ports. This means that the freight is less frequently to the rail yards. Less freight distribution centers. Less tenders are offered on the load page.
This is not just theory. Let’s look at what the charts are now showing us.
(Source: Sonar’s overseas tender index. Otvi.usa. The overseas bidding volume index hangs at 10,000-10-500 during the year, indicating that transportation demand is not significantly growing – due to bankruptcy and the market.
Figure 1: External Tender Index (OTVI)
In Auto Trace the amount of contractual transportation by the shipment. Think this as a few people Invitation to offer Are sent to carriers. And now? This is 10,261.28, flat and shaky.
Now look at the trend line. Notice how about 10,000 marked all year? This is not enough to support all the capacities there. And fluctuations? This defends the backwardness of the inventory, the fear of tariffs and retailers in each cargo.
We haven’t seen a reliable bike since June and guess what happened after that? Retailers pushed some orders forward Before Increased ceremonies arrived again.
(Source: Teu volume index in the Sonar Ocean. Ioti.usa. Container imports have been down since the peak of this summer this summer. When the ports slow down, the cargo burden will feel it again.
Figure 2: Input Ocean TEUS Size Index (Ioti)
This is even more important for predicting. IoTI tracks the volume of the entry container in US ports. Now? We are sitting in 1,822.33 and the curve is barely lowering its process.
What kind of transportation is this main index in the next 30-60 days. If it does not get out of the boat, it will not hit the warehouses. And if it doesn’t hit the warehouses, it will not be a tender. It’s very simple
The retailers have already told us – they expect 5.6 % of less imports last year than last year. This does not seem to be too big, as long as most of these imported cargoes are LTL and TL opportunities for internal carriers.
Why tariffs hit the toughest small carriers
Now let’s talk about you.
You are not a mega carrier. You do not see the 90 -day payment conditions or a team of analysts watching the world trade. You are a double act that runs the I-40 and try to pay your drivers and cover your fuel.
This is why the tariff crushes the small fleet:
- You rely more on freight in the market, which dries faster by reducing volume.
- You don’t have long -term contracts, so when retailers cancel cargo, you first feel it.
- Your margins are thin, so a slow week will enter your next week’s schedule.
And guess what happens in the tariff season?
Now you are not just fighting low volume – you are fighting the mega fleet that throws your extra capacity into your space.
The real-world-sponsored examples disappeared
Let’s get out of charts and real life:
And here is a bumper – even if the tariff is revealed, the recovery is slow. When shipping loses your self -esteem, they change the shopping habits. They may look at other countries. They keep longer.
(Source: Sonar. Average load load of 5 years. NTI.USA)
“But I still see the loads …”
Yes, but for how long? And at what rate?
Now, some lines are still moving but the rates are LetterHin and margin are declining. This is not the power – this capacity is overwhelmed by the waste.
If your income for each truck has fallen below $ 4,000 a week, and your fuel and insurance has not decreased, it may not be profitable.
And let’s not forget: Q4 is supposed to be the peak seasonHuman If we are now hard to break 10,000 otvi, where will we go when the holiday shipment is soft?
Do tariffs get worse?
The current government has cited the renewal or expansion of specific tariff packages, including sections 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. And don’t forget the steel and aluminum tariffs that now cover+ 400+ the product – a decision that has raised the cost of equipment and raw materials across the screen.
Even if a few 90 -day suspensions increase tariffs, the damage has already been done. Retrievers have rebuilt supply chains. Transportation has been delayed. And domestic manufacturers are still cautious.
Real prediction – straight, no chase
We are not here to cover it with sugar. This is a very potential reality:
If tariffs continue to exacerbate, we are looking for Q4 2025, one of the weakest seasons since 2019. OTVI may not be above 10,600. Ioti may fall under 1700. This puts many small fleets and landlords at risk of running under Breakeven for 10 to 12 consecutive weeks.
If you are back on vacation, think again.
The last word
Tariffs may look like someone else’s problem – but they are already sitting behind your chair and whispering in your fuel gauge.
And this is a hard fact: if you don’t compatible, tariffs will not just push their weeks in the coming weeks. They will take you out of the game.
But if you stay sharp, track the right data and move like a business owner – not only a driver – you will be one of the few things that will not only survive, but when the dust is solved.
This is not about politics. This is about being realistic.
And in the transportation, those who are in the early position … takes the longest.
About the Author
