Week chart: TEUS Ocean Size Index – US Sonar: Ioti.usa
The TEUS Ocean Inlet Index (IoTI) – which measures the departure date for containers caused by world ports limited to the United States – is currently running about 8 % below 2023 for this time of year and nearly 14 % lower than 2024. Is the waves of imported by geopolitical concerns and the uncertainty of trade policy eventually stabilized?
The answer is largely dependent on whether transportation is confident in predicting their demand and the level of inventory for the remainder of the year.
There is no new clarity on US trade policy. The courts have illegally issued sections of existing tariffs and waiting for the Supreme Court’s review, but transportation appears to have been adjusted with a more submissive order order compared to the past two years.
Seasonally, September is usually the month when import demand is turned off after the peak season-this year was partially reduced by transportation in response to the temporary suspension of the expense tariffs in China and occurred about a month and a half before the program.
According to last month’s logistics executives (LMI), the inventory level has grown at a moderate speed but slightly stronger than last year. In LMI, values above 50 indicate expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. Reading August 58.2 was compared to the last 55.7 years.
The inventory level is growing faster than April, despite a sharp drop in May. This shows that demand was not particularly strong – the conclusion that is supported by domestic transport data.
The volume of the international container, which was averaged by an average of about 1-2 % more than last year in August compared to 2024, while the tender volume of the truck was reduced by approximately 10 to 15 %. Last week’s readings were performed in -2 % and -15 % for these two modes, respectively. These figures all indicate weakening the demand for goods, even if the retail sales remain “good” – though it is worth noting that these sales figures are not set for inflation.
Slow autumn does not necessarily guarantee a weak holiday season, especially if the creature is already built, but points to the softening of the general demand.
It is worth noting that IoTI is much higher than the lowest post -win in late 2022 and early 2023. However, last year’s comparison with unusual seasonal patterns is complex.
In general, import demand reflects the silent economic outlook for the remainder of the year and possibly in early 2026. Unless the American consumer is surprised again during the holidays, the moderate slow trend appears.
Increasing demand does not necessarily mean softening domestic transport markets. The truck market has been in a contractile cycle for almost three years with its capacity continuously exit. Despite the tender volume of about 15 % lower, carriers reject the loads more quickly because their networks become increasingly unbalanced and less buffer.
This dynamic is currently shown in a point market, which is now more reactive – spikes and rapidly falls, a pattern that tends to be even more prominent in November and December.
Ironically, the slow economy of the commodity may make the conditions more difficult for transportation. With the cooling of the transportation demand, the transport market can now be more challenged to move.
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