The shipping industry no longer moves in cyclical waves, it appears to move in shock waves. – These opening remarks captured the nature of the transportation industry in 2025 and set the tone for the panel discussion. Transportation industry lessons from 2025 to 2026 navigation.
2025 in context, swing without a trigger
What happened during the year was more like a sequence of shocks, with markets reacting to tariffs, capacity constraints and trade policy signals faster than supply chains.
In many ways, 2025 was similar to the disruptions of 2020 and 2021, but without a pandemic as a trigger, where many assumptions were challenged and, in several cases, completely rewritten.
A significant amount of dedicated e-commerce capacity was moved across regions in a short period of time, leading to increased volatility. E-commerce flows quickly turned to Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, redistributing pressure rather than removing it.
At the same time, tariffs introduced uneven demand patterns in air and ocean. Short spikes in air freight appeared whenever new tariffs were anticipated, while ocean freight saw heavy front-loading earlier in the year and the traditional peak season looked unusually muted.
What turned out to be that the markets were responding expectations As per approved policy
Exporter reality and rapid diversification
From an exporter and manufacturer perspective, 2025 accelerated sourcing diversification across Asia. Production expanded to Southeast Asia, India, and other alternative sources, but without replacing China’s upstream role.
Deep supplier ecosystems, particularly for electronics, semiconductors, and auto manufacturing, remained rooted in China, meaning components continued to flow outward even as final assembly shifted elsewhere.
The importance of schedule integrity in ocean shipping was explored as it had become a growing concern, prompting exporters to consider air, multimodal and even cross-border shipping solutions within Asia to fill scheduling gaps.
Importer and retailer behavior
On the importer and retailer side, the uncertainty of tariffs will change purchasing behavior during 2025. Inventory buffers were increased to protect against sudden policy changes, often through front-loading shipments. However, this came at a cost, both financially and operationally.
As sources diversified, retailers faced new capacity constraints, particularly for air freight from Southeast Asia and India.
Capacity did not increase at the same rate as production changes, resulting in higher rates, longer transit times, and less predictable service unless a higher upgrade was warranted.
This reinforced the importance of more accurate fulfillment planning, SKU rationalization, and more accurate tracking of supplier performance.
Contract and logistics strategy, price flexibility
From a logistics service provider’s perspective, the year 2025 marked a clear shift in how shipping contracts are structured. Carriers have increasingly moved away from net rate certainty and toward hedging.
Minimum commitments re-emerged, not as an old practice, but as a way to stabilize access to space. Premium products, guaranteed loading, rollover protection, and predictable shipping windows moved from optional to essential.
Modal strategies have also evolved. Fixed routes became less viable as congestion and reliability issues arose across traditional hubs.
Forwarders are forced to design flexible networks, combine air, ocean and land options, bypass congested hubs and respond dynamically to disruptions rather than relying on static designs.
Looking ahead to 2026, uncertainty remains fundamental
When the discussion turned to 2026, the consensus was cautious but clear. Demand related to semiconductors, AI infrastructure and high-value electronics is expected to remain strong, though potentially less linear. Capacity constraints, particularly in aviation, are likely to shape rate behavior.
Ocean shipping is a major sign in the possible reopening of the Red Sea. While this can shorten transit times and reduce rates over time, the transit itself may cause congestion and disruption as networks are reconfigured. As noted throughout the discussion, periods of chaos often provide temporary support rather than weakening aviation.
Common theme in 2026
In all perspectives, the final message converged on compatibility. Expect surprises, but the industry has proven its ability to pivot, rebalance and react under pressure.
The strategic solution was clear: Information now has the same weight as capacity.
Visibility systems, exception management and digital documents are no longer effective tools. They are a risk management infrastructure.
The ability to spot disruption early, act quickly, and adjust contracts and routes in real time will determine which supply chains will perform best in 2026.
The lesson from 2025 is not that stability will return, but not anytime soon. Resilience must be designed by default by all stakeholders to ride the 2026 wave.
Watch the full recording here
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