As we look to 2026, the global supply chain is entering a season defined by relative stability, but underscored by ongoing uncertainty. After years of instability caused by the pandemic and inflationary pressures, freight rates in major modes have shown less volatility. However, this improvement does not guarantee the absence of oscillations or perfect smooth motion. Structural forces—tariffs, trade policy, and geopolitical disruptions—will continue to shape how goods move around the world.
Also read: Emerging trends in global trade: How technology is changing international markets
Ocean shipping: Stability with caveats
Ocean shipping continues to be the backbone of global trade and in 2026, we expect supply to outstrip demand with 1.5 million TEU set to join the global fleet. Typically, this means lower rates, but the picture is more complicated. Ongoing diversions around the Suez Canal and congestion at Asian and European ports have temporarily reduced capacity, creating longer transit times and operational inefficiencies that are likely to increase next year. Keep in mind that the oversupply could become more apparent if ships return to shorter routes through the Suez Canal.
Additionally, as we have seen this year, ongoing changes in tariff and trade policies are likely to affect market demand and where ocean carriers allocate capacity based on how new or changed tariffs are implemented.
For businesses, this means planning for volatility even in a seemingly calmer market. Flexibility in routing and logistics will be essential.
Air freight: E-commerce keeps demand strong
International air traffic Compared to the same period last year, it increased by 5.1 percent While Asia Pacific airlines are leading with 7.4% annual growth. Air cargo continues to benefit from the growth of global e-commerce, especially outside the US, however, regulatory changes – such as the elimination of duty-free exemptions for low-value cargo – have changed the lines of trade. Airlines have already adjusted capacity, and while demand remains strong, these changes could drive consolidation and closer strategies in the new year, particularly from retailers. For shippers, it’s a reminder that agility matters: the ability to pivot between modes and regions remains a competitive advantage.
Tariffs and Trade Policy: Common Sign
Perhaps the most important factor of uncertainty in the global supply chain is trade policy. Recent US negotiations with China show continued fluidity on the issue: the announced 100 percent tariff is changing to reduced tariffs and a one-year suspension of maritime fines. At the same time, the new proposed Section 301 tariffs, the ongoing Section 232 investigation into certain goods, and the Supreme Court case on the IEEPA tariffs show how quickly the landscape can change. For example, if the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs results in refunds, importers will need quick actionable insights, so tools like the US Customs Analytics Platform are essential to view duty data, help make refund strategies more achievable, and enable smarter compliance.
And this only applies to US tariffs. Evolving trade incentives around the world are driving change, such as India’s Manufacturing Linked Incentive (PLI) program, which continues to attract technology and auto manufacturers from the European Union (EU), Japan, etc. Also, the network of trade agreements in Southeast Asian countries has prompted some companies and manufacturers to reconsider their tariff optimization and compliance strategies.
In addition, sustainability policies are being adjusted, e.g Emissions Regulations by the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS)which started to gradually increase from 2024. In the new year, every shipping company operating to or from EU or European Economic Area (EEA) ports will be required to monitor, report and verify 100% of their greenhouse gas emissions.
All of these developments can affect sourcing decisions, cost structures, and even inventory strategies. Companies that monitor these changes and build contingency plans will be in a better position to manage risk.
Resilience as a strategy
In this environment, supply chain flexibility is more than a buzzword. This is a competitive advantage. Senders should focus on the following:
Medal flexibility: Be prepared to shift between ocean, air and other modes as market conditions change, including exploring a combination of air-sea and LCL integration strategies. Don’t forget your customs, domestic and warehousing strategy. Although these functions may be managed by different people in your organization, they collectively affect supply chain outcomes. Taking a comprehensive approach—such as coordinating customs clearance and complying with transportation planning for cross-border movements—can reduce potential bottlenecks caused by medal transfers and facilitate more seamless movement of goods across international borders.
Various sources: As tariffs and trade tensions continue to change sourcing patterns, consider alternatives in Southeast Asia, India, Mexico and Canada. Intentional, multi-layered Hierarchy of sourcing Acting more like a framework for prioritizing geopolitical stability, business continuity and cost efficiency, it gives shippers the ability to make more strategic adjustments. Integrating PO management technology into this approach helps maintain visibility and control across multiple suppliers and regions, reducing risk as sourcing strategies pivot.
Adoption of technology: Use AI-based scenario planning and digital vision tools to predict disruptions and optimize costs. Even the most advanced shippers are slowed down by manual workflows and siled systems. We’ve seen firsthand how AI makes a difference. For example, we Always-On Logistics Planner™, designed by us A fleet of 30+ AI agentsmakes many of these processes faster and more reliable for shippers.
Risk mapping: Identify vulnerabilities, alternative routes and possible plans for geopolitical or climate events. These events can be unpredictable, but contingency plans in place can help minimize financial losses and operational delays.
big picture
The year 2026 will not be defined by runaway volatility, but by structural forces that require foresight and adaptation. Air and ocean transportation, inland shipping and customs will remain critical, tariffs will continue to shape trade flows, and geopolitical risks—from the Suez Canal to regional conflicts—require proactive planning.
Our charge is clear: build supply chains that are not only efficient, but also flexible. Invest in vision, embrace innovation and stay agile in the face of change.
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