Ocean carriers enter the second half of the year with the fall of transportation rates, increased tariffs and limited vision for a significant peak season. While some analysts see the possibility of a weakening of a late -year rate, the overall image is dark.
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Peter Sand, senior analyst of xeneta, said Loadstar That any climb is likely to be moderate and limited to the point market. “We do not expect a normal peak season, but we don’t turn off,” he said. “Rates can rise in October or November because peak costs continue.”
Recent data from Drewry, Xeneta and the Shanghai Container Transport Index (SCFI) confirm the continuous pressure on the Asian and US routes. The Darwari World Container Index (WCI) showed that Angeles decreased by 2 % to $ 2,494 per 40 feet and Shanghai -Nivork reduced by 5 % to $ 3,638. SCFI data shows a sharp decline on the western coast of the United States, with a decrease of 3.51 % to $ 1,759 per 40 feet, down 2.61 % to $ 2,769. Xneta XSI recorded 4.92 % to $ 1.913 per 40 feet on the West Coast, though it was slower than last week.
Chitty Hind Drewry noted: While the point rate is still declining, the decline has declined because carriers use empty sailing to manage capacity. “This provides only limited support,” he said, referring to the change in trade flow, tariffs and shipping, which increases excessive deepening.
Elsewhere, SCFI data on Asia and South Africa showed $ 3.008 per 40 feet. However, Maersk plans to cut direct services to South Africa from October and leave MSC as the only carrier with direct contact. Immigrants warn that redirection through Europe increases transit time, extra costs and costs and eliminates South African competitions. Some also link Maersk’s move to US -South Africa trade relations.
Looking at the future, sand said that carriers have few tools to stabilize the rate beyond empty boats, slow ships and fleet deformation. Scratching old ships may help balance supply, but any significant impact before 2026 is unlikely.
Chitty is optimistic about sand than the end of the year. “The strikers do not see the peak this year,” he said, stressing that the ship’s delivery will be good next year.
Despite flexible demand, the shipping rate is under pressure in most transactions – this shows that carriers’ reduction strategies are unlikely to reverse the downward trend soon.
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