Global trade will surpass $35 trillion in 2025, setting a new record, and grow by 7 percent from 2024, even as geopolitical divisions and rising costs ease through 2026, according to the latest World Trade Update of the year by the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
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Maritime transport remained the backbone of this expansion. Maritime goods flows accounted for nearly $1.5 trillion of the $2.2 trillion increase, while trade in services added another $750 billion, up nearly 9 percent. However, UNCTAD expects the pace to slow in the final quarter, forecasting growth of just 0.5 percent for goods and 2 percent for services as economic headwinds intensify.
East Asia accounted for most of the global growth. During the last four seasons, this region has increased exports by 9% and intra-regional trade has increased by 10%. Africa also delivered strong results, with imports up 10 percent and exports up 6 percent, reinforcing a broader trend: South-South trade grew 8 percent, outpacing the global average and highlighting the growing resilience of developing economies.
In contrast, advanced economies grew more slowly. North American exports rose just 2 percent over the past four quarters and fell 3 percent in the third quarter. Europe fared slightly better, with exports growing 6% year-on-year, although seasonal results fell to 2%.
Manufactured goods continued to be the strength of global trade, growing 10 percent over last year. Electronics led the increase with 14% growth driven by demand related to artificial intelligence. Agricultural shipments also strengthened, recording an 8 percent jump in the third quarter, with grains, fruits, vegetables, and oilseeds showing particular movement.
However, the auto sector showed signs of pressure. Overall, the auto business fell 4 percent last year as the volume of combustion engine vehicles fell 13 percent and the electric vehicle business fell 5 percent. Hybrid cars were the only bright spot, increasing by 22 percent. In commodities, iron and steel trade is up 40 percent from the third quarter of 2024, although broader natural resource flows remain amid lower fuel prices.
Global trade imbalances remain a challenge. China’s merchandise surplus narrowed slightly in the third quarter but remained about $30 billion higher than in the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit improved from earlier in the year.
UNCTAD notes that geopolitical fragmentation is increasingly changing maritime routes. Both friend-shoring and near-shoring indices strengthened in the third quarter, reversing earlier declines and returning to 2021 levels. Trade concentration among major economies has also increased, indicating an increasing share of global cargo through a smaller circle of key trading partners.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD warns that trade momentum is likely to slow. Declining global growth, increasing debt burden, rising trade costs and ongoing uncertainty are affecting shipping activity. While many developing economies have proven resilient, rising debt remains a constraint.
However, the shift from price-driven growth to volume-driven growth in late 2025 suggests that underlying demand is stable. For ship operators and port terminals, this signals steady cargo flows ahead – although margins may shrink as rates remain under pressure.
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