U.S. destination container bookings, as measured by the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, have been significantly weaker this fall, averaging nearly 11 percent below 2024 levels since September, according to FreightWaves SONAR data.
Also Read: Container shipping rates ease after holidays, but Red Sea risks still worry industry
Still, the index remains more than 30 percent higher than in 2019, a year that also brought concerns about escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. In May 2019, tariffs rose from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and another round was imposed in August, though some were later lifted. These measures led to a slight increase in orders, but did not cause panic buying in recent years.
The Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 caused the sharpest increase in container imports in history. From mid-2020 to the first half of 2022, shippers changed inventory management from “as-due” to “as-needed”. As consumption of goods decreased, many companies were left with excess inventory.
After that, companies cut their orders below storage levels for about a year before resuming imports at a strong pace in late 2023. The next major disruption occurred in October 2023 when Hamas attacked Israel, which eventually forced ships to divert through the Suez Canal. The deviation constrained marine capacity and pushed Pacific spot rates for 40-foot containers above $7,000 in summer 2024, the highest level since 2022. These disruptions pushed some ships to an “if possible” strategy, but not to the extremes of a pandemic.
As concerns over the Middle East conflict eased in late 2024, tariffs became the main driver of import volume volatility in 2025. Erratic execution and a seasonal shutdown hampered imports, contributing to an unusually early peak in orders in June and July and a mid-year rise in cash rates.
As a result of this initial order, container import demand has decreased to levels consistent with a slight reduction in inventory rather than restocking. The latest reading of the Logistics Managers Index inventory of 49.5 in October, indicating a slight contraction, confirms this impression.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
About the Author
