The recent number of UN trade and development updates (UNCTAD) for World Trade in 2025, especially its second trimester performance, shows both surprising resilience and important warning signs for the rest of the year.
The key findings of this report show what growth (and threatens) the growth of business, and the consequences of transportation, logistics and business stakeholders such as you and your network.
Trade at a top but no friction
Here are the numbers of the title that has attracted my attention (based on UNCTAD update):
- World trade expanded in the first half of 2025 about $ 300 billion
- In Q1 2025, the trade of 1.5 ~ pounds (in terms of value) grew and in Q2, the speed is expected to accelerate to 2 %
- However, when adjusted for volume (ie eliminating price effects), more average growth is approximately 1 %
- The commodity trade in Q1 showed a strong volume and value, with an increase of 3.6 % and an increase compared to the year 5.3 %.
- But there was no uniform growth: North American imports increased (13.4 % Q/Q). Africa’s export registered 9 % y/y growth
- At the same time, several production lines grow strongly: office and telecommunication equipment (16 %), chemicals (12 %+) and clothing (7 %+). But the energy, iron and steel sections and the car sections plunged
Under the hood: What causes upside down?
To understand whether this is durable (or burnout), let’s bring the layers of what helps the business stay strong in Q2 2025.
- Price and inflation impacts the value of trade – Part of the jump in the trade Value There is less of more and more commodity moving for more and more commodities. Increasing the price of middle commodities and fluctuations in commodities is removing nominal trade figures even if the volume growth is moderate.
- Technology, Artificial Intelligence and Digital Services are the main growth engines – In both goods and services, demand for technical goods and digital services is accelerating. Computer services (especially artificial intelligence, cyber security) keep even a wider softness.
- “Front load” and tariff effects- Some markets (especially the United States) have pushed demand forward in response to anticipated tariffs or policy change.
- Regional changes and stronger performance in developed markets – Interestingly, developed economies increase profit in Q1 and move from developing markets. The United States witnessed a 14 % jump in imports. EU exports rose £ 6 % ..
- Symptoms of supply and supply chain recovery – Indicators such as the Baltic Container and Different Container Transportation Criteria have fallen since early 2025, indicating that the logistics systems are gradually being adjusted.
Risks and Caution: Why is the second half of 2025 less confident
As the trade reach new heights, some red flags appear. That’s what I am watching closely:
- Uncertainty of policy and tariffs
The biggest shadow of business is still the risk of politics, especially with the latest US and China drama. - The fragmentation of the business and the change of value chain
Just as countries can be disrupted by the beach, dangerous or re -commercial partners, traditional patterns can disrupt costs and inefficiency. - Commodity and drag sector
Energy, steel and car sectors are traditionally weakened by heavy trade drivers. That pulls the commercial sections of the cycling or more compact. - Vulnerability in developing markets and average income
Those who have less ability to absorb shock or supply chains are more likely to be exposed to fluctuations.
What does this mean for industry stakeholders
If you are in transportation, transportation, port or business consulting, here are how to think through strategic answers:
| Challenge / process | Impression | What stakeholders should do |
| Diverse Growth: Powerful developed markets | Some paths observe additional demand. Others will delay | Reset capacity to faster lines; Avoid excessive increased to low -work corridors |
| Digital trading and trading goods are increasing | Cargoes of high -value and compact; Speed and flexibility | Invest in work with high efficiency, digital customs and rapid clearance |
| Policy fluctuations and tariff risk | Sudden path or market changes | Agility construction: alternative resources, routing, protection practices |
| Slow -growing in commodity trade | Less volume in bulk and raw goods | Adjust the combination of the fleet (more multipurpose ships), diversify the load base |
| Need to resist supply chain | Leading time longer, buffer requirements | Model logistics activate closest and dynamic inventory strategies |
Professional Tip: For business consultants, publishing scenario -based forecasts (lean, base, stress) helps customers test their strategies. In this weather, “What if the tariffs are imposed?” And “How much is my supplier base?” The questions are important ..
Final thoughts
The second trimester of 2025 has offered a strong signal: World trade does not return to “usual trade”, but in harder conditions it puts the records. It is of high value, average volume, and sector and regional shifts are clearly visible.
But the movement of stability does not guarantee. The winds are unpredictable, the large and the supply chain immobility can only carry us so far.
To ride to the wave, the business community and logistics must be active: the flexibility of the building, the risk scanning, and the doubling of digital resistance ..
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