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Summary of diving:
- Truckload volumes are expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter, but there could be a significant turnaround in 2026, according to a Nov. 20 Curve report from freight broker RXO. Curve was part of Coyote Logistics until RXO acquired the business last year.
- While October and November outperformed on a year-over-year basis, cash rates are likely to hold steady without much deviation in either direction, the report said.
- “While this cyclical peak may be atypical of the past—it may well dip into deflation (without a real hit)—we believe it will reach a more traditional peak in 2026,” the report said.
Diving Insights:
Changing US trade and tariff policies, non-resident CDL enforcement, and changes in English language proficiency enforcement are all contributing to market pressure.
Demand can still be the main sticking point. Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Transportation Association, says it’s possible that supply-side disruption could lead to a fundamental shift in the market. But demand should be the focal point, says Michigan State University supply chain management professor Jason Miller.
Manufacturing, a key segment for many trucking companies, is still weak compared to its 2007 peak, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. Industrial production in the manufacturing sector fell by nearly 7.8 percent compared to 2007, but when high-tech goods are excluded, it fell by 15.6 percent.
Manufacturing measures show a slow recovery from the 2007 peak
Industrial production efficiency indicators in the manufacturing sector from January 2005 to September 2025.
“The new orders component of the manufacturing PMI — one of the strongest leading indicators of U.S. economic activity — had been improving for five consecutive months, then fell in July,” RXO said in its report.
Subsequently, the manufacturing PMI component rose in August and declined in subsequent months. November PMI survey data showed new orders contracted for the third month in a row. Primary metals were one of the few commodities to gain in November based on the index.
However, slow production helps. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, cutting interest rates for the third time this year. The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the target, said in a statement that economic activity was improving moderately but noted that uncertainty remained higher than usual.
“If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, we may see this index rise as businesses have a cheaper cost of capital to invest and expand their operations,” RXO said.
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