This sound is generated automatically. Please let us know if you have any feedback.
Economic conditions and policy changes over the past year have put a wrench in what some in the packaging industry had predicted would be a recovery period for the folding carton markets. This is based on an executive summary for the Cardboard Packaging Council’s recent trends report 2025-2026, created by Fastmarkets RISI.
Headwinds such as tariffs, inflation, cuts in government benefits and declining consumer confidence are contributing to concerns that demand for folding cartons “faces an uncertain future,” the report said.
boom and bust
Like many fiber packaging sectors, folding cartons got a boost early in the COVID-19 pandemic when consumers bought more goods. According to the report, shipments of folding cartons have grown at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent over the past five years.
A second increase in 2022 came as low inventory levels in supply chains fueled a restocking boom, causing shipments of folding cartons to rise 11.6 percent from 2019 to 2022, the report said.
But the wave ended by 2023, when consumers again shifted their spending habits, partly towards service costs and partly due to inflation. According to the report, shipments of folding cartons decreased by 4.8% in 2023 and 2024. Demand has fallen 12.2 percent since its pre-pandemic peak in 2007.
Factors such as lower inflation and higher consumer spending fueled optimism for growth in 2025, but other factors emerged that ultimately dampened consumer confidence. Uncertainty also held back corporate investment as companies waited to see how the policies would play out.
“While there is still plenty of potential growth for spending to return to trend levels, declining consumer confidence and rising inflationary expectations will tighten consumer budgets in the near term,” the report said.
What’s ahead?
PPC predicts that the slowdown in folding carton shipments will continue through this year, but will begin to recover in 2026.
In the short term, the PPC expects that reductions in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits will reduce demand. Additionally, more restrictive immigration policies will slow population growth, which could be another headwind for carton shipment growth.
On the contrary, some changes can make more Predictability For businesses and consumers alike, the tax benefits included in the bill are a nice big bill. This could improve costs and production in 2026 and 2027, the report says.
PPC forecasts that shipments of folding cartons will grow from 2026 to 2029, with demand increasing at an average annual rate of 0.8% from 2024 to 2029.
About the Author
