Despite heavy U.S. tariffs and heightened political tensions, Chinese exports to the U.S. continue to flow at significant levels, highlighting Beijing’s enduring dominance of key global supply chains.
Also Read: China Port Cost Movement Hardly Ripples US Shipping Market
Six months into former President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war, China is still sending about $1 billion a day in goods to the United States, according to data cited by Bloomberg. Exports even rose in September compared to August, defying expectations that a 55 percent average U.S. tariff would limit trade.
While overall U.S.-China trade has fallen sharply this year, China’s dominance in strategic sectors — from rare earths and electronics to critical manufacturing materials — is hard to replace. Analysts say this gives Beijing short-term bargaining power as trade talks continue.
“China’s strong position in global supply chains gives it bargaining power with U.S. importers in the short term,” Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Kuo wrote. Resetting production takes time.
This leverage comes at an important moment. The two countries are preparing for talks to extend a 90-day tariff truce that expires in November. In the third quarter alone, Chinese companies exported more than $100 billion in goods to the United States, helping to keep the Chinese economy on track to meet growth targets and increase the bilateral trade surplus to $67 billion.
Meanwhile, Trump has expressed optimism that a “good deal” could be reached at an expected meeting with President Xi Jinping at a summit in South Korea next week, although he warned that talks could still fail.
A crack in the tariff wall
Despite aggressive tariff measures, many American companies continue to source from China. Analysts say that transit routes through Mexico and Vietnam have helped some importers minimize tariffs.
“There are a lot of differences,” said Zhaopeng Xing, chief China strategist at ANZ Bank. US Customs does not have enough manpower to handle them.
Chinese data also show surprising flexibility in certain sectors. Exports of e-cigarettes, e-bikes and refined copper cathodes all increased last quarter. Exports of electrical cables jumped 87 percent to $405 million, while shipments of smartphones, laptops and computer components totaled nearly $8 billion, a significant figure given the heavy tariffs.
Even after ending the “demini” rule that allowed small packages to enter duty-free, Washington continues to buy from Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu. Since May, about $5.4 billion in small packages have been shipped to the United States despite the 54 percent tax.
Gradual but uneven separation
However, the broader trend points to a slow separation between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. imports from China have fallen to about $320 billion this year, comparable to levels seen in 2017 before Trump’s first round of tariffs.
Some sectors are moving production elsewhere. Game console makers such as Nintendo and Microsoft now produce mainly in Vietnam, while LCD TV exports from China to the United States fell 73 percent last quarter.
However, analysts note that a complete unraveling is unlikely. “Both sides may reduce interdependence, but it cannot be reduced to zero,” Xing said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the current US-China trade slowdown has been more severe than the 2018-2019 tariff shock, suggesting that this phase of decoupling could be deeper and longer.
About the Author
